It seems odd one longs for a Mexico under the helm of then-President Vicente Fox. Not to hold it against current leader Felipe Calderon, but it’s been a rough year for Mexico. The global economic downturn has reduced demand for Mexico’s oil, limiting the flow of remittances into the country from Mexicans working in the United States. 

Enter H1N1, swine flu, which has killed more than 100 people inside the country, sickened 6,000 more, and cost Mexican tourism billions of dollars. Add the government’s continued war against drug cartels, which have infamously killed thousands of civilians in recent months. And then Earthquakes in April and May contributed to a feeling that Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group describes as “everything going wrong at once“.

However, Mr. Bremmer has recently published an insightful piece on Mexico’s broader future in the long-term, calling for continued political stability to equate to the nation recovering its position as a stable and dynamic emerging market and a sound long-term investment bet.

There are plenty of reasons why Mexico remains on a long-term path toward growth and greater prosperity. First, dependence on exports to the United States isn’t such a good thing for the moment, but over the longer term, it will push Mexico to new heights. The U.S. economy will recover. Mexico’s economy will follow. That’s good for exports, remittances and tourism. U.S. investment will continue to flow into Mexico, particularly as U.S. market access to China becomes more difficult in years to come as the Chinese leadership begins to more actively favor Chinese companies at the expense of foreign competitors.

But the best news for Mexico became obvious during that much disputed 2006 election. Following Lopez Obrador’s loss (by less than one percent of the vote), he declared victory and challenged the official result in court and in the streets. For days, tens of thousands of his supporters brought traffic to a standstill in central Mexico City. Yet, Mexico’s courts and legislative bodies continued to function and markets avoided sustained damage. The election proved that Mexico’s people have enough confidence in the country’s public institutions to allow the democratic process to run its course.

The prognosis seems positive and of course there are countless variables that may alter the economic course of this once-emerging market now caught up in stroke after stroke of bad luck. However, I tend to agree that the dynamics are in place for an emergence from the depths of economic turmoil due to political stability, confidence in the government’s crackdown on drug cartels and the hopeful end to the swine flu pandemic.