Leaders of Bolivia’s rightist opposition today denied any links to an alleged plot to kill President Evo Morales, and condemned last week’s shooting of three suspected mercenaries by police.  

Officials in the eastern city of Santa Cruz called for an international investigation into the killings in the city when police moved to arrest a group they say planned to assassinate leading public figures.

Morales, who accused rivals in Santa Cruz of organizing violent protests last year, has linked the suspected plot to right-wing opponents he vociferously claims are seeking to destabilize his government.

It has been an exciting few weeks for Evo. And it is quickly creating further political instability in Bolivia.

During his career as a cocaworkers’ leader, Evo Morales took part in nearly 20 hunger strikes. It should therefore come as no surprise that a Morales political strategy involves a mattress and coca leaves.

What prompted the latest tantrum? In January, Morales won a referendum approving a new constitution inspired by his Movement to Socialism (MAS). This calls for a fresh election on the 6th of December, in which Evo hopes to win a second term. However, the opposition, which controls the senate, was holding up the requisite electoral law because the government refused to agree to a new electoral register. 

The opposition feared that a government-run programme to give identity cards to Bolivians who lack them could be abused to swell the current government’s vote in rural areas. When the president of the electoral court said there was no time to organise a new register, the opposition walked out, leaving Congress inquorate and Morales hungry.

Its this sort of behavior which inevitably caused the government to buckle. 

Interestingly enough, despite theatrics that threaten his nation’s economic stability due to the sharp rise of political risk that it brings, Morales remains popular to Bolivians. They say he champions indigenous Bolivians and his nationalization of his nation’s natural-gas industry has indeed boosted the government’s finances. However, Bolivia has more than adequate natural gas resources and is surrounded by countries with significant gas deficits, yet the country is selling far less gas to Brazil, Argentina and Chile than it could if it had done more to encourage investment in upstream development and pipeline infrastructure.

Morales has also been trying to force foreign oil firms to commit to large exploration and production projects at the risk of losing concessions. The government stated in January it had investment “pledges” amounting to around $0.9bn for 2008 from large oil companies; in May, YPFB officials said they expected to “audit” firms during June, to determine whether they were carrying out the investment plans.

Beyond the commodity bullying that would bode tremendously badly to any interested investor abroad, one can assume Evo feels he won his crusade against the opposition in this instance. The court decided that a new electoral roll with biometric data could indeed be ready in time. The government also retreated on earlier talk of earmarking up to three dozen seats in the new lower house of congress for candidates of indigenous descent (it remains unclear as to whether this would allow certain Bolivians to vote twice). However, when the knives and forks go away and the president bullies and pouts, its his people and his economy who ultimately feel the pain.