The list is our attempt to respond to what we see as a relatively underdeveloped marketplace of ideas when it comes to scenario planning for expropriation, unfair regulatory intervention, nationalizations, and resource nationalism events that have an impact on foreign investors in emerging markets.
Forget about privatization. With the state’s takeover of TNK-BP by Rosneft, Russia is headed for a nosedive into dirigisme economy and the accompanying headaches of stagnation.
From threats of a coup in Thailand to rebel invasions in the Congo to an anti-corruption trial in Brazil, every business with foreign operations finds itself tasked not only with navigating complex political issues but also coming up with its own policies to limit exposure and rapidly respond to changing conditions.
An intriguing analysis has recently been published in the Moscow Times by Associate Fellow of the Russia & Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in London John Lough. Below, John writes at length about the transformation of Rosneft in to a power-player at British Petroleum and the TNK-BP acquisition’s immediate ramifications to the Russian economy and [...]
The Moscow Times and Steel Guru have reported that Rosneft is looking to build a $700 million oil-products pipeline from Mozambique to Zimbabwe in an unprecedented effort to expand its international reach in to Africa. The new route seeks to compete with shipments to Zimbabwe by road from neighboring South Africa that supplement supplies through [...]
According to the Financial Times, Chinese exports to Africa jumped by 22 per cent last year to hit $73 billion, which is double the GDP of Kenya, while the two-way volume of trade reached $166.3 billion. But African leaders now want more than just cheap goods.
So far 2012 has been quite a year for resource nationalism, with Argentina seizing back control of YPF from its Spanish owners Repsol, TNK-BP’s never-ending troubles in Russia, and even the creeping expropriation in places such as the United Kingdom and Australia where tax regimes have sharpened with little warning. But could the threats be [...]
There’s no question about it – Argentina “lost” when they announced the renationalization of oil company YRG, seizing the 51% stake from the Spanish energy giant Repsol. In the weeks since, they have been taking a beating in the global media. If it was President Kirchener’s plan to take the oil company all along, the [...]
After a number of accidents, attacks by militants, and political scandals, is Shell’s honeymoon with Nigeria coming to an end? Some recent events and transactions indicate a shift in the Dutch company’s strategy in the country, opening a window of opportunity for new operators.
Blackrock, the world’s largest money manager, today warned that “resource nationalism” was a growing trend, on the rise globally. Their investment chief for natural resources, Evy Hambro, particularly singled out the regimes of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela as extreme examples of government intervention, ultimately hinderances to foreign investment. “We’re seeing a [...]