indiaIndians turned out in steady numbers today to pick a new federal government in a month-long general election. The elections will run until next month in several stages of scattered polling. At that point, elections officials will count the vote electronically in a single day — on May 16, three days after the last round of polling.

This year the country is voting in 543 boroughs of the Lok Sabha, or the lower house of the Indian parliament. A Star News-Nielsen survey last week showed the ruling Indian National Congress party-led coalition garnering the most seats ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party, with an alliance of regional groups trailing in third place.

There are a lot of factors that India’s new government must weigh in on following the election.

Truly, the new government will have to aid in the effort to stimulate an emerging market economy reeling from an unprecedented drop in exports and slumping manufacturing output. They will have to address U.S. President Barack Obama, who is looking for India’s support to stem rising instability in Afghanistan and nuclear-armed neighbor Pakistan. Finally, they must combat what Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has called  India’s biggest security threat, that being Maoist rebels.

The rebels have been battling the government in several states in an insurgency that has resulted in thousands of casualties since the late 1960s. They claim to be fighting for the poor and the dispossessed.

Maoists most recently attacked vehicles carrying paramilitary troops and polling officials, set fire to voting stations and exchanged gunfire with security forces in the states of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh. According to some reports, nine civilians and 10 security personnel were killed in the recent violence.

The man who wants to unseat Prime Minister Singh, the BJP’s 81-year-old Lal Krishna Advani, has vied to portray the Prime Minister as weak on economic management and security, especially since attacks by Pakistan-based terrorists in Mumbai in November.

These ageing leaders contrast with voters in a country where more than half of the 1.2 billion population are aged 25 or lower. In a bid to engage with younger voters, Congress has pushed 38-year- old Rahul Gandhi, the son of party chief Sonia Gandhi and assassinated former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, to the forefront.

The BJP has countered with Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, 58, the chief minister of Gujarat, who has been praised by Indian billionaire Anil Ambani for turning the state into the country’s top destination for investors. A strong return in Indian investment has never been more pressing than now.

The global recession cut exports of Indian goods by the most on record in March, extending the longest slide in a decade. Industrial output fell in February by the most in more than 14 years, while job losses have hurt consumer spending. Tushar Poddar, a Mumbai-based economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told Bloomberg that there are no major differences in the economic policies of Congress and BJP, with both vowing to increase spending on roads and power to support India’s economic growth.

Congress plans to facilitate further foreign investment if voted back to power. Alterntively, the BJP has precedence of supporting investment flows and free trade when it was last in power between 1998 and 2004. “The immediate challenge for the new government will be to restart fiscal policies to stimulate the economy,” said Sonal Varma, a Mumbai-based economist at Nomura International Ltd.

India must also face the challenge of its new role in intenational cooperative efforts. Obama’s special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, said in New Delhi on April 8 that the U.S. wanted India’s co-operation in the fight against militancy. “Obama’s aim is also to make sure India doesn’t do anything to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan, pressure that could cause a backlash in Pakistan,” stated Pratap Bhanu Mehta, president of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi. Prime Minister Singh has said talks with Pakistan won’t resume unless Islamabad shows “sincerity and determination” in tackling terrorism.

The BJP has accused Congress of a “soft approach” toward terrorism and has said India should consider severing all trade, transport and cultural ties with Pakistan unless the government in Islamabad hands over suspects.

For an emerging market to not only survive but thrive in a competitive inter-connected and multi-polar economy, there needs to be a stable government in place who will continue to push for foreign investment, participate with the developed world to a stronger degree both economically and in policy and show a decrease of political risk as collateral. We look forward to commenting on what India votes to the table.

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