Newly-elected South African President Jacob Zuma, from the offset, knew he could not expect much of a honeymoon, despite the landslide victory of his ruling African National Congress (ANC) party in April’s general election. His campaign pledges had raised expectations too high, unfortunately coinciding with South Africa sinking into its first recession in nearly two decades. After expanding by 3.1% last year and by an average of 5% over the preceding four years, the economy is expected to shrink this year by around 2%, a far cry from the 1.2% growth on which the government based its budget in February.

Some of the ANC’s election pledges, originally scrutinized but met internationally with a ‘wait and see’ mentality, have already fallen by the wayside. Plans for national health insurance seem to have been shelved, at least temporarily, among other ANC-founded initiatives.

Despite falling state revenues, the government says it will not cut spending, letting the budget deficit widen instead. This, as the Economist recently stated in an article published July 23rd,  has led to tensions between the ANC and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party (SACP), which have vaunted their three-way alliance. After being largely ignored during Thabo Mbeki’s nine-year presidency, which ended rather unceremoniously last year, they had helped launch Zuma to power, expecting to wield a lot more influence in his new administration. Now many believe this may not happen.

As excerpted from the Economist:

Insisting on the need to impose a “working-class hegemony”, Zwelinzima Vavi, Cosatu’s secretary-general, has suggested that policy should be determined by the alliance, not the government. “We are the policymakers,” he said, “and the government implements. The government doesn’t lead any more.” He clearly did not mean to restrict this to trade-union matters, either. To the chagrin of foreign investors, Cosatu tried in May to block the multi-billion rand sale of Vodacom, South Africa’s state-owned mobile-phone operator, to Britain’s Vodafone; the courts blocked its bid. More recently Cosatu has been demanding the nationalisation of mines, the abandonment of inflation targeting by the central bank, and the removal of its respected governor, Tito Mboweni.

Former union leaders hold seven posts in Mr Zuma’s 34-member cabinet, including the labour and economic-development briefs. Another four posts have gone to Communists, including the trade and industry ministry. Both Cosatu and the SACP have threatened to recall any of “their” ministers who fail to toe the party line. But Trevor Manuel, South Africa’s respected market-friendly finance minister for the past 13 years, is meant to forge economic policy as head of a new and potentially powerful National Planning Commission in the president’s office. The new finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, previously an efficient head of the tax service, is said to hold similar views to Mr Manuel’s, despite once being a Communist, as were many other leading ANC figures.

It is still too soon to tell whether Mr Zuma will be able, or want, to hold his left-wing allies in check. For the moment leading businessmen sound sanguine but wary. “We may not particularly like the man,” said one, “but we are pragmatic. We won’t be holding our noses.” After nearly two years of uncertainty during the bitter power struggle between Messrs Mbeki and Zuma in the ANC, leading businessmen hope for more stability and clarity under the new administration. As the president seeks to balance the various elements in his disparate government, they are still waiting to see which way he will go.