Nigeria is an underdog at the geo-political roundtable. It baffles me that the nation doesn’t receive as much international coverage as it should. The Niger delta has one of the largest reserves of oil in the world. The Nigerian economy is heavily dependent on the sector, as it accounts for 95 percent of the country’s total export revenues. And yet what goes unnoticed, or spoken about in smaller circles, is the fragility of control of the region, the fragility of Nigerian civil discourse, the fragility of Presidential power, and the fragility of political risk.

These issues are tied to the health of Nigerian President Umaru Yar Adua.

Umaru Yar ‘Adua is known to have a chronic kidney problem.  As governor of a remote northern state, Katsina, he had set up a specialist unit in his local hospital to treat the condition. From the time Olusegun Obasanjo seemingly hand-picked Yar’Aduna, the successor’s health has been a source of constant speculation. The Nigerian media and opposition politicians have voiced concern about whether he is fit enough to govern. They have expressed concerns that he will make good on promises to establish law and order and use the country’s oil wealth to make it one of the world’s top economies.

But in international circles, there is greater concern as to what will Nigeria become should he leave office prematurely, or die?

A political upset such as this would ruin the relative stability and easing of political risk in investment that Nigeria has enjoyed since 1999. From down-trodden economy to emerging market, Nigeria and its people are on the rise. However, if Yar’Adua’s health deteriorates, it could threaten his grip on the apparatus of government. 

He has also been taking the wrong approach to stifle these rumors. It is reported that he asked his attorneys to sue an Abuja-based newspaper after it reported the president was seriously ill and has not been seen in public in the past two days. Recently, a privately-owned television station was shut for days for reporting that President Yar’Adua may step down due to ill-health.

Abuja-based lawyer and political analyst Maxi Okwu says there is indeed a need for clarity on the state of the president’s health, and that suing a newspaper is not the way to do it. ”The threat by the president to sue a paper for making a statement on a matter of public interest is an empty threat,” said Okwu. “Let him not hide behind the fact that he has immunity from personal prosecution or litigation against his person to intimidate a public institution like a newspaper that should inform the public.  The matter of his health is a matter for public interest, and it is because he shrouded it in mystery that the matter is escalating.”

That is a phenomenally succinct yet truly statement. The President and his government’s lack of candour on such matters simply fuels more speculation, gossip and increases strategies political risk. Should an investor consider Nigeria if her government could destabilize at a moment’s notice? 

When concern is met with a stonewall, it doubles in risk and triples in attention. Inevitably, the President’s leadership will end. For the sake of investment and indeed the safety of Nigerians, one can only hope that the transition of power following the era of Ya’Adua is in the tradition in which he succeeded, with a stable government omitting the political risk of a power struggle.